2008-09 NBA Team Preview – Orlando Magic

2008 Record: 52-30
Division Finish: 1st – Southeast
2008 Playoffs: Lost, 4-1, to the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Semifinals

Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy
Season: Going into second season
Record At Orlando: 52-30
Career Record: 163-103

Offseason Acquisitions:
Signed Mike Wilks, G, 2.7 ppg, 1.3 rpg, Free Agent
Signed Jeremy Richardson, F, 1.6 ppg, 0.4 rpg, Atlanta Hawks
Signed Dwayne Jones, C, 1.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, Cleveland Cavaliers
Signed Anthony Johnson, G, 5.6 ppg, 3.8 apg, Sacramento Kings
Signed Mickael Pietrus G-F, 7.2, ppg, 3.7 rpg, Golden State Warriors

Offseason Transactions:
Excersiced option on guard JJ Redick through 2009-10
Resigned center Adonal Foyle

Offseason Losses:
James Augustine, F, 1.6 ppg., 1.2, rpg, Waived
Carlos Arroyo, G, 6.9 ppg., 3.5, apg, Free Agent
Kenyon Dooling, G, 8.1 ppg, 1.8, apg, Traded to the New Jersey Nets
Maurice Williams, G-F, 9.3 ppg, 3.1 ppg., Signed with Atlanta Hawks
Pat Garrity, F, 2.1 ppg, 1.4 rpg., Retired
Bo Outlaw, F, 2.0 ppg, 0.0 rpg. , Wavied

Rookies:
Courtney Lee, G, 20.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg., Western Kentucky

The Skinny:
Outside of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, no player in the NBA may be more exciting than Orlando’s Dwight Howard. I haven’t watched the Slam Dunk competition in I don’t know how many years, but I was tuned into last year’s competition based solely on the performance of Howard. He did some amazing things with the ball and along with James could be the new face of the NBA.

Prior to Howard’s arrival in O-Town the team was struggling. They finished seventh in the Atlantic division and as a result were able to take Howard with the No. 1 pick. Within three years he had the team back in the playoffs despite a sub-.500 record which just goes to show that the East is a very weak conference.

Last season the Magic won the Southeast Division with a 52-30 record and won their first playoff series since the 1995-96 campaign as they beat Toronto, 4-1, in the first round. Their record was their best since that 95-96 campaign when they lost to the Bulls in the conference finals and was 31 wins better than the year before Howard was drafted. They were subsequently tossed from the playoffs by Detroit, 4-1.

Despite not being the prototypical NBA center that you normally think of at only 265 pounds on a 6-foot-11 frame, Howard is one of the best in the league. He averaged 20.7 points per game and 14.2 rebounds per game. He led the NBA with 69 double doubles and his 14.2 rpg. was a full rebound better than the next closest player (Marcus Camby).

As good as Howard is, he obviously can’t do it all by himself. He’s got a pair of really good supporting cast members in guard Hedo Turkoglu and forward Rashard Lewis. Turkoglu was second on the team at 19.5 ppg while grabbing 5.7 rpg. and handing out 5.0 assists per game. Lewis was just a shade back at 18.2 ppg., 4.2 rpg. and 5.4 apg. Also doing a solid job was point guard Jameer Nelson as he produced 10.9 ppg. and handed out 5.6 apg.

The problem with the Magic isn’t a lack of production at the offensive end of the court, it’s at the defensive end, particularly during the playoffs. Orlando ranked sixth in the NBA last year at 104.4 ppg. and were pretty decent at 99.0 ppg. on defense, which surprisingly ranked 11th.

However, as anyone will tell you defense is what wins you championships. If you don’t believe me, the top three defensive teams in the NBA – Detroit (90.1 ppg.), Boston (90.3 ppg.) and San Antonio (90.6 ppg.) – all made the conference finals. The Phoenix Suns have been mentioned a lot the last few years as a potential champion, but their model of all-out offense has yet to come to fruition. Twice the Suns got to the Western Finals, only to be beaten 4-1 by San Antonio and 4-2 by Dallas. Last year they dropped another 4-1 series to the Spurs.

When going up against a great defensive team like the Pistons in the playoffs, Orlando scored a mere 91.6 ppg. This shows the flaws in the idea of just trying to outscore opponents and not putting much stock in playing defense. Nine times out of 10 the better defensive team will win. Also, because Orlando had to work harder to score, they didn’t have the energy to play the necessary defense – not that they do anyways – but Detroit was only 0.5 ppg. under its regular season average of 90.7 ppg.

The playoffs is all about who can stick to their game plan and go about business as usual. Unless you’ve got a serious injury, the playoffs is not the time to have to change approach. Detroit was able to follow its game plan better than Orlando and the Pistons were the one who were able advance.

Between Howard and Lewis the Magic seem to have the defensive end pretty well covered. Where they are struggling on defense is the back court. Richard Hamilton scored more than 30 against Orlando in the final two playoff games and Chauncey Billups tossed in 28 in game two.

Prediction:
Orlando is a pretty solid team, but they need to get Howard more help. San Antonio and Detroit have five great players on the floor while the Lakers have a super star and a great player in Pau Gasol to help out Bryant. While Lewis, Turkoglu and Nelson are all pretty solid, they’re not great. The Magic must make a decision to either get one big gun, kind of like a Scotty Pippen, or build up the four other guys to be pretty good.

They lost Maurice Wiliams, who averaged 9.3 ppg., to Atlanta and replaced him with Mickael Pietrus from Golden State and his 7.2 ppg. Shooting guard JJ Reddick was one of the best college players of all time, but he has been a dud as a pro. Maybe he’ll get better or maybe he’s just going to be another in a long string of Duke players that are great in college but a flop in the league. If he could ever rise to anything close to the level that he had in Durham he could be that great No. 2 guy.

Rookie guard CourtneyLee has some potential to be a good player. He scored 20.4 ppg. at Western Kentucky, which is a pretty solid program that you’ve probably never heard much about. Lee is a good start, but he’s not going to be enough. Orlando should have another good record so they’re not going to have a draft spot where they can really get an impact player. To move up to the Detroit, Boston and Clevelands of the world they’ll have to make a trade or sign a big free agent.

There might not be a worse division in the NBA than the Southeast so unless Howard gets hurt the Magic should have no problems winning the division again this year. Orlando should win a first round series again, but that’s as far as they are going to get. Unless Stan Van Gundy can get the Magic to play better defense in crunch time they’ll be watching the conference semifinals from home.

2008-09 NBA Team Preview – Cleveland Cavaliers

2008 Record: 45-37
Division Finish: 2nd – Central
2008 Playoffs: Lost, 4-3, to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals

Head Coach: Mike Brown
Season: Going into fourth season
Record At Cleveland: 245-101

Offseason Acquisitions:
Signed Ronald Dupree, F, 1.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, from Seattle
Signed Tarence Kinsey, G, 3.6 ppg., 1.1 rpg from Memphis
Signed center Lorenzen Wright, F-C, 1.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg. from Sacramento
Traded Damon Jones to Milwaukee & Joe Smith to Oklahoma City Thunder. Got guard Maurice Williams, G, 10.2 ppg, 6.1 apg. from Milwaukee

Offseason Transactions:
Resigned guard Daniel Gibson
Resigned guard Delonte West

Offseason Losses:
Damon Jones, G, 6.5 ppg, 1.1 rpg., Free agent
Devin Brown, G, 7.5 ppg., 3.4 rpg., Signed with New Orleans Hornets
Dwayne Jones, C, 1.0 ppg., 2.0 ppg., Signed with Orlando Magic
Detemtris Nichols, F, 1.1 ppg, 0.4 rpg., Claimed off waivers by Chicago Bulls

Rookies:
JJ Hickson, F, 6-9, NC State, 14.8 ppg., 8.5 rpg.
Darnell Jackson, F, 6-8, Kansas, 11.2 ppg., 6.7 rpg.
Sasha Kaun, C, 6-11, Kansas, 7.1 ppg., 3.9 rpg.
Signed Jawad Williams, F

The Skinny:
If the Cleveland Cavaliers want to make that next step from a good team in the East to a great team in the NBA that has a chance to win a championship, they need look no farther than one of their Central Conference foes. The Chicago Bulls wrote the playbook on how to win with a superstar and Cleveland general manager Danny Ferry needs to not only read it, but take the necessary steps.

For my money, the Cavs have the best player in the league in LeBron James. He might not go out and score 50 points in a night like Kobe Bryant and may not play as much defense as Bryant, but he’s more consistent than Bryant. He can beat you in so many ways that I think he’s more versatile than Bryant. He also rebounds a lot better than Bryant and being around the basket creates scoring opportunities with second chance points.

Another reason that makes James a better player in my opinion is that he’s trying to get everyone involved and make them a better team. James’ idol was Jordan and he knows if he wants to be in the same company some day that he has to start winning championships. Jordan was a great player but his status was elevated even higher once he started winning titles. Karl Malone may be one of the 50 greatest players in the league’s history but he’ll start to fade into the background because he was never on a championship team.

James can score just about any time he wants. It’s not a matter of if he could; it’s a matter of does he want to. I’m sure a lot of team would like for him to just to try to score at will. Detroit will let James get 45 points, but hold the rest of the team to 30 and the Pistons will come out on top almost every time.

But LeBron is smarter than that. He knows he has to get them involved because there are going to be nights when he can’t score at will and has to rely on his teammates. He also knows that he needs them because he already gets all of the attention off the court and if that spreads to the floor they won’t be as likely to play as hard. Look at the Lakers for the last few years up until this year. It was the Kobe Show and he wasn’t doing anything to make friends so no one wanted to play hard or play with him and they lost. He became more of a leader, wasn’t a ball hog, shut his mouth some and they went to the Finals.

So the Cavaliers knew they needed help last year when the acquired the services of Ben Wallace in a big midseason trade. Along with Wallace, Cleveland picked up guard Delonte West from Seattle and guard Wally Szcerbiak from Chicago. In the process they got rid of a lot of dead weight as the traded sent six players packing, topped by Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall and Shannon Brown.

Hughes and Marshall made sense. Both are getting long in the tooth and Marshall isn’t a great team player. Brown isn’t living up to the hype at Michigan State and he’s not doing it in the pros either. The one that surprised me is Gooden. He’s only been in the league six years and was averaging 11.3 ppg. and 8.3 ppg., but you have to give up something in those trades and they felt like Gooden was ready to go.

For his size, 6-foot-9, Wallace has been one of the best rebounders in the league over the last half a decade. However, he is getting a bit old. With a dozen NBA seasons under his belt he is getting close to hanging it up. Szcerbiak is a solid role player who can help a ball team win if he can stay healthy.

I like the edition of West. He’s a younger version of Hughes who averaged 10.3 ppg., 4.5 assists per game and 3.7 rpg. They also picked up Maurice Williams in trade during the offseason. He averaged 10.2 ppg and 6.1 apg for the Milwaukee Bucks so it will be interesting to see what happens in the battle between he and Hughes.

Most of the Cavs offseason moves besides getting Williams weren’t that spectacular. They drafted a pair of pretty solid forwards in JJ Hickson from NC State and Kansas’ Darnell Jackson. With Wallace as a mentor they don’t have to jump right into the fold and be expected to contribute, though they may.

Prediction:
I still think the Cavaliers are a year or two from putting together a championships team though when you’ve got a player the caliber of James anything is possible. If this team sticks together for 2-to-3 more years and they can keep some key guys in place then they may be a contender in 2009-10 or the following year. They have to resign James, but that’s a whole other blog.

They’ve got a great center in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who averaged 14.1 ppg and led the squad at 9.4 rpg., and he’s locked up until the 2010-11 season. As I stated before I’m also a fan of West and Williams. One of them may have to play the point and the other the off guard because that’s where they’ve got a hole.

The Cavs have a pair of holes in their off guard and power forward. I don’t know if Wallace can hold up through the whole season, though being on the floor with Ilgauskas  and James may take some of the focus away from him and let him be productive like Dennis Rodman was with the Lakers. Hickson and Jackson could be good down the road but it’s hard to tell.

Since I predicted Detroit to win the Central and the NBA title the best I can give Cleveland is a second-place showing in the Central. I’ll give them the upset of Boston in the Eastern Conference semifinals, but they’ll lose to Detroit in six.

2008 Record: 59-23
Division Finish: 1st – Central
2008 Playoffs: Lost, 4-2, to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals

Head Coach: Michael Curry
Season: First Season

Offseason Acquisitions:
Kwame Brown, C, 6-11, 5.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, Signed from Memphis Grizzles

Offseason Transactions:
Resigned forward Walter Herrman

Offseason Losses:
Jarvis Hayes, F, 6-8, 6.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, Signed with New Jersey Nets
Juan Dixon, G, 6-3, 6.5 ppg, 1.6, rpg, Signed with Washington Wizards

Rookies:
Walter Sharpe, F, 6-9, Alabama-Birmingham

The Skinny:
Teams have come and gone over the last six years in the Eastern Conference, but one constant has been the Detroit Pistons. With their core still in tact from last year’s conference finals there is no reason to believe that the team won’t be back in the Eastern Finals or beyond once again this year.

With a 59-23 record the Pistons had the second-best record in the NBA last season. The only team with a better mark was the Boston Celtics. A big reason for the two best records coming out of the same conference is that the East is pretty week. The number of really good teams in the East you can count with your ears and nose. There are only a handful of decent teams and then there are the dregs of the league.

The West is completely different. You’ve got a bunch of really good teams with no one really head and shoulders better than another. Few would have expected the Lakers to make the Finals, but really there is so much talent in the conference that who ever is hot in the West can make a run. The talent in the East is not that good. Even a really hot team will struggle to beat one of the top dogs.

Two teams have been as consistent as it comes. One is San Antonio and the other is the Pistons. They have seen very little turnover in their roster during the last six years and as a result they’ve been able to rule a mediocre Eastern Conference.

Five key players have been with the team for at least four years. Guards Richard “Rip” Hamilton and Chauncey Billups along with forward Tayshaun Prince have all been with the team for six years. Center Rasheed Wallace has been there five years and forward Antonio McDyess has been there the last four.

That’s a great group of talented players that have been with each other for a while now. They know how to anticipate everyone’s moves and they all know how to win it all as members of the Pistons’ 2004 World Championship team.

No team may have more of its team returning from last year than the Pistons. Detroit brings back its top seven scorers from last year’s squad that was on the doorstep of the NBA Finals. The starting five averaged 69.0 points per game last season and accounted for 386 starts out of a possible 410.

The biggest problem the Pistons have is their frontcourt. Not since the days of the Bad Boys has Detroit been big on the inside. Even when they had Ben Wallace they still weren’t dominant. Wallace was a tremendous rebounder, but he wasn’t much of a threat on offense. Rasheed Wallace has the size of a center, but the skills of a power forward and presents such a tough match-up at the offensive end of the floor, but just the opposite of Wallace he’s not much on defense.

In an effort to strengthen the inside, during the offseason the Pistons acquired the services of center Kwame Brown from the Memphis Grizzles. After averaging 5.7 ppg. and 5.7 rpg., Brown was shipped to Memphis as part of the Pau Gaol deal. They also drafted 6-9 forward Walter Sharpe from Alabama-Birmingham who was averaging 14.2 ppg. and 6.8 rpg. before he was declared academically ineligible for the spring semester. Second-year center Cheikh Samb from Senegal could pay benefits down the line. He’s 7-foot-1 and is pretty solid at 245.

Unlike some teams, the Pistons appear to be ahead of the curve when it comes time to replace their vets. General Manager Joe Dumars knows that Billups and Hamilton aren’t getting any younger, that’s why they drafted guard Arron Afflalo and Will Bynum. Both are pretty good college players and if they listen to what the vets have to say they could step in and keep the train rolling.

Prediction
Even though Detroit has much talent back across the board, the one big intangible is its new coach. With only one year of experience as an assistant, Michael Curry was handed the keys to the Pistons after Flip Saunders was fired.

Curry has long had the respect of Dumars when he was signed to a 10-day contract with the team a few years back. Now the question is will he have the respect of his players. At 39-years old he’s only about four years older that Wallace and McDyess.

With such a veteran team this maybe the perfect situation for Curry. Billups and Hamilton can pretty much run the team from the floor so all Curry really needs to be able to do is manage all the egos in the locker room. As a former member of the Players’ Association he knows how to deal with a lot of egos so he may be the perfect man for the job.

I think this will be the year that the Pistons get back to the NBA Finals. As good as Boston is, I think the Pistons will figure them out. I also think that Detroit is much deeper than the Celtics are and the combination of those two factors will give them the edge of Boston come playoff time.

Before he got traded to Memphis, Brown was finally starting to develop into a good role player on the inside. It also helped that it was able to get out of Los Angeles because he was starting to get into trouble off the court there. This could be a second life for him in Detroit. Sharpe and Samb could also give some help on the inside.

This could be their last hurrah, but I think the Pistons will win it all this year. No one in the East besides Boston will give them a run and I don’t think Boston has it this year. The West is better from top to bottom, but they’ll beat themselves up and only San Antonio is as good as Detroit 1-5 with any sort of bench.

2008-09 NBA Team Preview – Boston Celtics

2008 Record: 66-16
Division Finish: 1st – Atlanta
2008 Playoffs: Won the NBA Championship, 4-2, over the Los Angeles Lakers

Head Coach: Doc Rivers
Season: Going into his fifth
Record at Boston: 168-160

Offseason Acquisitions:
Forward Darius Miles
Center Patrick O’Bryant

Offseason Losses:
Center Scott Pollard, option was not picked up.
Small forward James Posey signed a free agent deal with the New Orleans Hornets.

Rookies:
JR Giddens, G, 6-5, New Mexico
Semih Erden, C, 6-11, Turkey
Bill Walker, G-F, 6-6, Kansas State

The Skinny:
Everything is right again in the world of old school NBA fans. The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers played for the NBA Championship with the Celtics coming out on top for their 17th title. But the odds of those two teams meeting in the finals in two of the next three years like in the 80’s is pretty slim.

The Celtics had a great formula in place for last year. They’ve got a great core group of superstars that plays really well together in Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Those three stir the drink and then they’ve got a great group of supporting players who know their role. This is pretty much the formula that will help you win a title.

While the formula works great, the ingredients are getting ready to expire. Those three, along with journeyman Sam Cassell have all played at least 10 years in the NBA. Now that all three have a title under their belts and they’re growing long in the tooth how hungry are they going to be to make a run like last year? It wasn’t easy as they didn’t win a road game until the Finals.

Another problem with the Celtics roster is that they seem to be at both ends of the spectrum. Fourteen out of the 17 players on their current roster have either played seven years or more or have only been in the league for two years or less. Those players that fall into that middle aren’t very good either.

Because of some of the deals they’ve made and the draft positions they’ve had, the young talent they haven’t isn’t very good either or needs a lot of work to keep this train going. The Celtics better strike while the iron is hot this year because after this season they could be back to being in the middle to the bottom of the pack in the Eastern Conference.

One problem the Celtics are going to have to figure out is how to fill the void left by the departure of James Posey. During the offseason he signed a four-year deal with the New Orleans Hornets. Posey did a great job picking up the opposing team’s best offensive player and was a good three-point shooter himself. Posey was the one responsible for D-ing up LeBron James and Kobe Bryant during the playoffs. He also had the intangible of being a winner after being a part of the Miami Heat’s NBA title run.

So how does Boston plan on filling that hole? During the offseason they signed free agent forward Darius Miles. In addition they drafted JR Giddens from New Mexico in the first round and wing Bill Walker from Kansas State in the second. These seem like more of the Danny Ainge trade that got rid of Tony Delk and Antoine Walker for Jiri Welsch, Chris Mills and Raef LeFrentz and not the ones last year that brought in Allen and Garnett and earned him NBA Executive of the Year.

Miles is just trouble, plan and simple. It’s probably an attribute of a rough childhood in East St. Louis, but he’s been trouble everywhere he’s gone. He’s going to miss the first 10 games of the season because of a drug suspension. Great first impression. Then there’s his lack of defense and problems staying health. Throw in a pension for alienating his teammates and you’ve got a great pick up. Maybe the vets can real him in, but I doubt it.

Giddens isn’t exactly a choir boy either. He had problems at Kansas and had to transfer to New Mexico. If he gets influenced by Miles you might as well write him off as well. I don’t know much about Bill Walker, but Kansas State isn’t exactly a hotbed for talent. He was recruiting there by Bob Huggins, but how many of his players have really panned out to be good NBA players?

One player who may pick up Posey’s slack is guard Tony Allen. The Celtics resigned the fourth-year player out of Oklahoma State during the offseason. He might be able to fill that role, but he’s got to stay healthy. No one is really sure of his potential because he’s been injured so much. If he can stay of the IR for the entire season he could be a great role player.

Prediction:
Too many things just don’t seem right for the Celtics to repeat. After so many years of not having a championships ring, how hungry are the aging Garnett, Allen and Pierce going to be? Maybe they know this is there last chance and they’ll throw everything and the kitchen sink at winning again.

It’s always tougher to repeat than to win the first one and the Celtics just don’t have enough of the pieces to maintain a run like this. San Antonio built such a strong core group of players that all fit into their system so if one was missing the other could pick up the slack. If Pierce or Garnett go down for a long period of time the Celtics are in trouble. They need to have a full squad healthy for the entire year to keep the home court advantage in the playoffs. If they didn’t have home court advantage for every Eastern Conference playoff series and the Finals the title might be in LA or Detroit.

Posey is going to be a bigger loss than most people realize. Maybe not over the course of an 82-game schedule, but come playoff time when defense is so crucial – that was the basis of Boston’s championship run last year – it will show. I don’t think Miles will turn his act around and Giddons won’t amount to much. There are too many question marks around Tony Allen’s health to count on him for the whole year.

Boston will go 55-27 during the regular season and win the Atlantic Division because it’s pretty weak. They will, however, get bounced in the second round of the playoffs.